Successfully docking the first
ever commercial spaceship to the government-funded International Space
Station is not only a question of competition. Transferring the part of
space obligations to private bodies might help encourage agencies to go
further. However, even if Dragon helps unloading Russian space, it is
still question of funds allocation.
It seems that the
Dragon launch and successful docking to the ISS means much more for
space flights than previously thought. On one hand, NASA might
eventually have received a replacement for retired shuttles. On the
other hand, Russia seems to be gradually losing its potential customers,
since the USA, as well as Europe and Japan now possess cargo ships
capable of carrying necessary supplies to the ISS. Moreover, the Dragon
is capable of delivering cargo back to Earth - an option that neither
Progress nor ATV and HTV can boast.
However, if the
ISS is not the ultimate target it would make sense to have it replaced
for both Roscosmos and NASA, as this would free both agencies from
having to maintain the station until 2020. At least that was an initial
aim of NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) Program,
which includes launches of Dragon (developed by Space Exploration
Technologies Corp., or Space X) and ships built by Orbital Science
Corporation.
The same might be true for Russia, as
the ISS, as many critics have pointed out, requires effort and is
extremely costly, thus hindering other branches of space science. With a
fleet of retired shuttles, the only remaining ship to carry astronauts
to the ISS is the Soyuz (with three seats), but it takes a crew of six
to keep the station fully functional.
Prospectively,
the Dragon will carry people to space as well, as soon more research is
done. While Space X, the developer of the ship and its launcher Falcon
9, is sure that human spaceflight will happen in the next few years, the
time lag might eventually be a great deal longer. The second
demonstration flight of the Dragon was delayed for a year (meanwhile,
the Russian corporation Energia is building a new transportation system
that should be ready for the first unmanned launch in 2015, with manned
expeditions following in 2018). Nonetheless, it is most likely that
first commercially-built spacecraft will berth the station before the
end of the decade.
Recently, the Russian Federal
Space Agency (Roscosmos) has offered its partners to prolong the ISS
expeditions to nine months, instead of the current six-month period,
which would presumably reduce the number of manned launches. According
to Alexey Krasnov, the head of the human programs of the agency, this
would futher promote human flights. Earlier, the head of Roscomos,
Vladimir Popovkin, speculated that it might be more effective to switch
to visiting expeditions rather than keep the station constantly manned.
A
review of ISS functions go along with the new Strategy of Russian
Cosmonautics development which is supposed to lay the framework for the
next 20 years (until 2030) and secure Russia a leading role as one of
the three main space powers. The strategy will be finalized and sent to
the Russian government by the middle of the year. Meanwhile, some
changes are already being discussed.
The most abrupt
change will most likely occur to Roscosmos itself. Dmitry Rogozin, a
vice PM of the Russian government in charge of the defense industry, has
just announced that the structure and functions of the agency will be
reconsidered and possibly redefined by the mid-summer of 2012. The
restructuring will turn the agency into a state corporation as was the
case with the Russian state nuclear agency Rosatom. This idea was
promoted by Vladimir Popovkin himself, as he suggests that such change
might help avoiding internal competition and, save time and money.
However,some critics think that the pattern of Rosatom does not fit the
space industry as the agency should act as a state body following the
general strategy of space exploration.
Another point
of concern is space science that has stayed behind the human space
flights for more than fifty years. Even though the years to come might
bring some release from the ISS burden, there are some organizational
issues that make future of space science uncertain. Primarily, the lack
of certainty reagarding the role of the Academy of Sciences. As it
stands, key decisions are made by Roscosmos, while scientists act mostly
as consulting powers, which many make further advancement of space
science technologies extremely inconvenient. Moreover, there are no
consistent plans for space science missions. According to the project of
the strategy named above, up until 2030 Russia will mostly go on with
the missions that have not been implemented before as a part of Federal
Space Program 2006—2015, with possible extension of planetary programs.
However,
the main focus of the strategy is still unclear. Apparently, being the
number one world space powers requires Russia to act as a trendsetter.
And that's the issue to be dealt with now.
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